Friday, May 30, 2003
...Tough Day for the Varks
Thursday, May 30th, may go down as the day that doomed the Varks 2003 Championship hopes. First, Byung Hyun Kim gets traded to the Red Sox, costing the Varks a $18 pitcher who had just returned from the DL, ready to rack up Wins and drive down ERA & WHIP for the Varks. Later in the evening, $5 stud Odalis Perez visits Coors and is pounded to the tune of 12 batters reaching and 9 ER in 3 innings.
Open up your FAAB wallet folks, here comes Shea Hillenbrand.
posted by Mariner Optimist 1:42 PM
Thursday, May 22, 2003
...Payolahs on the rise
As the Elephants settle into their second month in first place, a threat looms on the horizon. The Payolahs are a mere 5 points behind and are gaining fast. Lets take a look at each category and where things stand on 5/22 (real freakin' early).
HR:Elephants 78 (12), Payolahs 63 (10), three teams with 58 or more. Just two points back with the Varks in between. Sexson(15), Floyd(9), Klesko(8), Castilla(8), and McGriff(6) provide most of the pop for the Payolahs. They are probably slightly overachieving in the HR category at this point, and may lose ground here.
RBI:Elephants 318(12), Payolahs 229(6.5). The Payolahs have 1.5 points just 3RBI away, but could lose same. The homer guys provide most of the RBIs with Charles Johnson, and surprisingly Luis Castillo adding in double-digit RBIs. The Payolahs could use a big bat to secure their spot in HR and gain in RBI.
SB:Elephants 39(10), Payolahs 24 (5.5). Only 1.5 points is easy to grab for the Payolahs, but they did recently trade for Eric Young, and acquired Adam Everett, so they are moving in the right directioin. Castillo has yet to really heat up as well. Castillo & Young will keep these guys in the upper half of the SB race, and if Kotsay or Klesko can return to swiping bags, the Payolahs may actually pass the Elephants in this category. The Elephants rely on a handful of second-tier basestealers in Lofton, Alomar, Cabrera, Boone, Renteria, and PWilson, so are not as susceptible to a single injury as the Payolahs.
AVG:Elephants .276(11), Payolahs .264(3). An area where the Payolahs could gain significant points, as a climb to .270 would gain them the 5 points that separate them from the Elephants. Ahh, but can they do it. With their power comes a price, as Sexson, Castilla and McGriff will keep averages low. However, its safe to say that Klesko (.255 vs career .285), McGriff (.261 v. .286), and Floyd (.252 v. .284) have certainly been underperforming so far this year, and Coors should help Charles Johnson build on his .234 average.
Wins:Payolahs 30(12), Elephants 24 (10). Pitching is where the Payolahs excel, while the Elephants get wins with smoke and mirrors mostly. Randy Wolf, Russ Ortiz, and Woody Williams all have 5+ wins, and Roberto Hernandez has been a serviceable vulture with 3 of his own. The wildcards here are Tim Redding, Shane Reynolds, and Livan Hernandez. Can they provide wins without hurting WHIP/ERA? Probably enough to keep the Payolahs secure near the top of the wins column, but if an injury strikes Wolf, Ortiz or Williams, they will be struggling in a hurry.
Saves:Payolahs 32(12), Elephants 9(5). The cornerstone on which the Payolahs have been built is their bullpen. They had three closers to start the season, and have already dealt two away in deals for Ryan Klesko and Eric Young. And so they put their large lead (7-10 saves over three teams) in the hands of the unstoppable John Smoltz. This may cost them a point or two as 2-3 closer teams catch up. Of course, if Mesa blows up much more, they may have bought another closer in Turk Wendell, and the lead is secure. The Elephants meanwhile have room for growth in saves, but will likely have to deal for a closer as Mike Dejean is all they got when Cal Eldred turns back into a pumpkin in a few weeks when Isringhausen returns.
ERA: Payolahs 3.31(12), Elephants 3.69(9). The Elephants have Vazquez, Rueter, and Millwood to counter the Payolahs big 3, so this may come down to the second-tier of starters as the Elephants send out Jake Peavy, Tomo Okha, Mark Redman, and Pedro Astacio against the Payolahs Redding/Reynolds/Livan mix. I think this is an area where the Payolahs may falter a bit.
WHIP: Payolahs 1.260 (11), Elephants 1.352 (8). Not much danger of being caught in the near-term, and the Elephants reliance of WHIP abuse-prone Rueter and Vazquez could allow the Payolahs to even gain here.
Trade Analysis:It looks like the Payolahs could mainly use one power bat and batting average help. A player like Todd Helton or better yet Vlad Guerrero would help them immensely, and with the Payolahs ownership being on the good side of so many, and with a giant bullseye on the Elephants, the Payolahs just might be able to pull off a deal. But what do they have to trade? Their biggest trade token would be 8D04 Randy Wolf, but they have to get an ace pitcher back as losing Wolf could result in a loss of points in W, ERA & WHIP. Second-tier keepers include Tim Redding (3A) and Woody Williams (17A), but losing either would hurt the pitching. The Payolahs NC's include Jason Stokes and Corey Hart, but they are likely 2+ years away. Alex Cintron could get on a hot streak and yield something, but he looks to be a utility infielder in the future, not the kind of guy that lands you a Todd Helton or Vlad Guerrero.
I think the Payolahs have an excellent team, and a generous benefactor could push them over the top by trade. The Payolahs have been aggressive in both trading and acquiring free agents to improve their lot this year, and they look like they will be in the mix all year, with a good shot at the Elephants. It may be time for the Elephants to stop giving Payolahs free advice before it bites them in the trunk...
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:09 PM
...Damn statistics and the Benedicts
The Benedicts' Blog today attempted to pick apart an earlier Elephants critique that it was not all the Benedicts' Jinx causing the Benedicts problems. So lets examine the Benedicts rebuttals one by one.
True, Andruw Jones is on a pace to drive in a lot more runs than he did is 2002, but considering that Jones RBI production was down last year and that Atlanta's overall run production is up this year, the Jones development is hardly news.
Andruw Jones drove in 94 runs in 2002, 104 in 2001 and 104 in 2000. He has never driven in more than 104 runs. Aside from one .300 season, he has never hit higher than .275 and his batting average over last two years is .267. So I don't think my quote that "Andruw Jones is having a monster year" is to out of line when on 5/9 when I said it, Jones was batting .300 and on a pace for 45 HR and 160 RBI.
Sanchez hit .286 last year in a near full-time role--he is no Ernie Banks, but he has been what he has been. His 14 hits in 61 at bats this year hardly has an measurable effect on the Benedicts, a team without a breakout performer
Yes, he has been what he has been, a .280 hitter who may give you 35 RBI and a couple stolen bases, going on 36 years old. But I agree with the Benedicts, Sanchez is not the reason he is in middle of the pack. I was looking to bundle someone on the hitting side with Nelson Cruz, and he was the easiest target. I think mentally, I saw a Met shortstop named Rey and was thinking Ordonez. The much bigger problem is Cruz...
"Take Nelson Cruz out of the mix and the Benedicts pick up two ERA points and one ratio points...placing them squarely where they are--in the middle of the pack."
Here's the stats:
Through games of 5/21, the Benedicts had 383.3 IP, gave up 523 BB+H, and 178 ER, for an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.364.
Those stats include Mr. Nelson Cruz' line of 29.3 IP, 49 BB+H, and 27 ER.
Take Cruz away and you have a team ERA of 3.84 and WHIP of 1.339.
So through games of 5/21, removing Cruz' stats would actually gain 5 points (3 ERA & 2 WHIP), it also puts them in position to move up even further. For the Benedicts just to get back where they would be without Cruz, they need to have a pitcher throw 34 IP of shutout ball and give up only 36 H+BB (roughly a 1.0 ratio). It is much easier to hurt your pitching staff than it is to help it in the qualitative numbers. So, while undoing the activation of Cruz alone won't make the Benedicts the league-leader, nothing Nelson Cruz would've done could help make the Benedicts a league leader, and instead he is MUCH further away than he would be. You can't chase wins with Rockies starters if you want to win 4X4. The damage that one bad outing in Coors can do to your ERA&WHIP is too hard to recover from.
And the Benedicts go on to show how much they missed the point by saying...What is interesting here is that the Benedicts were interested in another Rockie journeyman, Shawn Chacon, early in the season. Chacon continues to pitch well. Actually, Chacon is helping the Cervezas back into the middle of the pack from their early hot start. The perception that Chacon is pitching well is tempered by the fact that he is in Coors where pitching well has a different meaning. Since the Cervezas worked up the courage to activate Chacon, he has betrayed them with 35.7 IP, 53 BB+H, and 21ER for a 5.30 ERA and 1.486 WHIP. While Chacon at least picked up 2 wins and his numbers are certainly better than Nelson Cruz, Chacon (and any Coors pitcher) is too flammable to rely on as a DCBA starter.
Then, there was the claim that on auction day, the Benedicts knew, and everyone should've known that Worrell was gonna be the closer all year. Corey also points to Tim Worrell as a sign things are going well for the Benedicts. Worrell saved his 13th game last night and the Giant closer's job is his this year for as long as he is successful, what with Robb Nen being lost for the season to injury. Worrell was an end game play for the Benedicts. Frankly, Worrell should not have been around for the end game. With saves at a premium and an already injured Nen having no clean bill of health on the horizon, Worrell, a solid veteran pitcher on a very good team, was a safe play at twice his current salary. I just have to say that I think most of the league thought that Nen would be back in a month, and that if gone longer, it would be Felix Rodriguez and not Tim Worrell who became the closer. That was my thought, obviously, but maybe I was the only one so misguided. So I will again give kudos to the Benedicts for picking up Worrell, and seeing what those around him couldn't. Chime in if you thought Worrell was worth $6 when purchased, and if so, why you didn't go $7...
The Benedicts will be looking to acquire for Worrell a player who will make a greater contribution to the team than Worrell will if he remains a Benedict. This was said as the Benedicts again attempt to invoke that their "curse" will determine the fate of Worrell. I wonder if any owner will trade for Worrell with the assumption that he will be a closer in 2004. I know I wouldn't, but then I've already proven that I am not one of "those who know better."
And finally, this tidbit...
Corey's commentary rings hollow for another reason too. He is the only player in this league where the likes of Austin Kearns is available for free.
Actually, Kearns cost me two *keepers* in Loduca and Wigginton. Now Jake Peavy, Jose Reyes, Brian Schneider for Billy Wagner and $34 in auction spending money, that's better than free. But really, saying that my commentary "rings hollow" because I've made a few good trades in the offseason rings of sour grapes. Here I am trying to help my fellow DCBA owner by pointing out the errors in his ways, and he gets "snippy" with me (as my grandmother would say). Note that Nelson Cruz has finally been reserved, and Rey Sanchez has luckily been hurt, and while Thome's production has bounced back, Andruw has returned back to earth a bit. The Benedicts remain in the hunt, but they have that much further uphill to climb. I will say, that the trade of Kotsay for Vina seems just what the doctor ordered for the Benedicts, especially with the understanding of Kotsay's back woes meaning he may never be alright this year...
posted by Mariner Optimist 1:06 PM
Monday, May 19, 2003
...Elephants bid big to add Posednik, Eldred
With a quick stroke of pen to check, the Elephants sent off 3/10ths of their free agent budget on Scott Posednik and Cal Eldred, two names that a week ago could've been had for the minimum. But what a week these two had.
Cal Eldred became the Cardinals CUIR (closer-until-Izzy-returns) by default after failed tryouts to Steve Kline, Kiko Calero, Jeff Fassero, and Mike Crudale. Cal got his first save when the Cardinals used up the rest of their staff and won an extra inning game. LaRussa must have liked what he saw, as he ran Cal out for two more saves in the next three days. The transition happened so quick that only the Elephants and HoDogs appear to have noticed, and the Elephants $16 bid crushed the HoDogs $10 bid. Former Cards CUIR Kiko Calero was waived to acquire Eldred.
Scott Posednik, meanwhile, took over the starting centerfielder duties from OBP-challenged Alex Sanchez. In his first week as a regular, Posednik slugged a homer and stole 2 bases and won the hearts of Elephants management who shelled out $14 to top 8 other bidders in the Posednik sweepstakes. Former Padre CUHB (closer-until-Hoffmans-back) Jesse Orosco was waived to acquire Posednik, who joined the starting lineup, sending Matt Williams down for a breather.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:10 PM
...Contenders Wheelin and Dealin
Two more trades this week as contenders looked to jumpstart their teams in an effort to catch the Elephants. The Payolahs second deal of the week sent disappointing Fernando Vina to the Benedicts for disappointing Mark Kotsay. I like this deal for the bptj tea,s. At the time of the deal, Vina's stats look better (3/15/3/.245) than Kotsay's (1/6/3/.243) and their recent histories look pretty similar as with Vina having a slight edge in SBs and Kotsay having more HRs. Considering that the Payolahs just traded for speed, its surprising that they would give up a slight edge in speed.
What makes this deal good for the Benedicts is the fact that Vina replaces Nick Punto, and allows Mark Grace into the lineup. The Payolahs drop Matt Stairs out of the rotation, but he's a guy who would put up similar power numbers to Kotsay, with 10 fewer steals and a slightly lower BA. But still, both teams upgraded weak positions in the swap.
The next deal is a little bit bigger, with the HoDogs sending Kris Benson (3B) and Scott Hairston (NC) to the Boards for Larry Walker (29A) and non-entity Jason Romano (1A). At first glance, this looks like the Boards are dumping a big bat for a solid pitcher and a prospect, both priced to keep. But dig a little deeper and I really like this deal for the Boards. Walker is off to a slow start (4/27/3/.256) and he has been remarkably healthy all year. So even if Walker heats back up, he'll likely get hurt before he provides any huge value to the HoDogs. In return, the Boards get a very good pitcher in Benson (4/3.81/1.341) who at $3 will be a keeper. With the Big Unit out and Lawrence struggling, Benson goes from average HoDog starter to ace of the Boards staff. Add in a power-hitting middle infield prospect like Hairston who is blocked only by the likes of Craig Counsell, Junior Spivey and Tony Womack, and the future looks bright for the Boards in this deal. In the worst case, they are on their way to rebuilding for 2004. In the best case, Benson is joined by the Big Unit and a return to form of Lawrence, and the Boards gain 15 points in WHIP & ERA and re-enter the pennant chase. The HoDogs DID do a good job in trading from strength to fill a weakness of power hitting, and now must cross their fingers that Walker stays healthy and that Jeff Suppan and Kaz Ishii continue to pitch well.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:02 PM
Thursday, May 15, 2003
At The Quarter Turn...
And here they are approaching the quarter turn, as the standings start to settle a bit. The handicapping has changed slightly...
Elephants are leading the pack fresh from a big surge in batting average from dead last to second place in a week. The power numbers are there, and the Elephants should build on this lead with the return of Brian Giles and Robert Fick to everyday status. Pitching is still this team's weakness, and they are known to be looking for a second closer. Key performers to watch include Jake Peavy, Pedro Astacio, Mark Redman, and Tomo Okha. If two of these can pitch well consistently to go with Millwood, Vazquez and Rueter, then this team will be tough to catch.
Payolahs have surged to second on the strength of their pitching, but now have dealt away two closers, and will rely solely on John Smoltz to bring them home. The rest of the pitching has been excellent with Wolf, Williams and Ortiz pitching studly. They added Eric Young to help their steals, and a surge in batting average is likely as Vina, Floyd, and Klesko come out of their slow starts. Key for the Payolahs will be to get pitching from Tim Redding or Shane Reynolds, and power from one of Charles Johnson, Vinny Castilla, Gabe Kapler or Todd Hollandsworth. If any catch fire, the Payolahs may leave the Elephants in their dust.
Varks continue their slow & steady rise through the standings, and have the Elephants firmly in their sites. The Varks need a rise in batting average and that will come when Pat Burrell, Junior Spivey and Adrian Beltre heat up. The Varks are also without a closer, and will likely need to trade to fill that need. They have a lot of talent to trade, keeping Marlon Byrd an NC for just that reason. Unfortunately for the Varks, the only teams out of this horse race have already dumped. Key performers for the Varks in the second turn are likely to be Burrell, and the return of Jason Isringhausen.
HoDogs are another team whose batting average is keeping them out of the top spot, and like the others should improve as Shawn Green and Paul Loduca get untracked. Power has been absent from the Dogs lineup as well, but speed they have in spades. A trade of speed for power could be forthcoming. Pitching has been solid, but the Dogs have to be concerned that they rely on former second-half faders like Kaz Ishii and Jeff Suppan. A Shawn Green hot streak will be the key performance to watch out for, as will a surge from Tom Glavine.
The Cervezas came strong out of the gate, but may have applied the whip to soon confusing their nag of a team for a thoroughbred. This team has a good offense, but not as good as their standings suggest. Look for the Cervezas to fall further in the standings as Rafael Furcal average declines along with JT Snows RBIs and the HRs of Javy Lopez and Rondell White. The only underachiever so far on offense has been Edgardo Alfonzo. The Cervezas may be able to goad this team into the money by the front of their rotation, with Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Vicente Padilla, and Al Leiter all solid. But they need to get more depth on their pitching staff of the Simontacchi's and Chacons will continue to undermine their better pitchers. Key performers to watch will be (JT) Snow White (,Rondell) and the 7 dwarf pitchers that are Tomko, Simontachhi, Chacon, Stephenson, Jensen, Kline, and Villafuerte.
Benedicts fans are pleading with their owner to end the Nelson Cruz experiment. That he is a key performer for the Eggs is a sure sign that they are headed for another second division finish. This team has the guns to contend. An offense built around the Jones boys, Thome, Helton, and a resurgent Richard Hidalgo is gonna provide power & average. SBs will be hard to come by, but that's survivable. Saves are a strength of this team due to the prescient $7 investment in Tim Worrell. But after Wood and Schmidt, the rotation drops off quickly into the murky depths of Carl Pavano, Shawn Estes, Nelson Cruz, Adam Eaton, Oscar Villareal, Oliver Perez, and Jae Weong Seo. Three of these pitchers will have to step up and contribute in Wins, WHIP, ERA for the Eggs to sniff the Winner's Circle.
Rynochasers lurk in the middle of the pack with the hungry look of a Kentucky Derby favorite. This animal could surge at any time, if their studs can brush off their slow starts. Berkman and Vlad could carry this team a long way, and the pitching desperately needs the return of Tony Armas, to take the pressure off Curt Schilling. This is another team that lacks pitching depth, and must rely on Steve Trachsel, Elmer Dessens, and Horacio Ramirez to be solid. So while the hitting will rebound, the pitching may keep this team out of the money.
Ache Men got off to a slow start, and have worked their way toward the middle of the pack. They've already pulled the trigger on a major deal, adding Barry Bonds to the offense and Matt Morris to the pitching, so they will need their team to emerge from the slow start on its own. The first step to recovery would be help in steals from $25 Roger Cedeno. Next would be a rise above the Mendoza line for David Bell. And finally, the Ache Men need to find health. Just a Griffey returns, they lose Craig Counsell, Ray Durham for a month and Eli Marrero for 3 months. On the pitching side, Matt Morris has been a rock, and Mike Hampton looks like the Mike Hampton of old. But what happened to Wade Miller? So the key performers would be the Ache Men trainers, along with Wade Miller and Roger Cedeno, and we'll see if the Ache Men can ride out this run of bad luck.
Heads are a team without a strength or a weakness really. They define balance. Slow starts (Ramirez,Bautista) and Hot starts (Sanders, AGonz, Pudge SBs) litter this offense. The pitching has been a little sub-par with Roy O off to a slow start, and Sheets and Graves struggling a bit, although Damian Moss has been a pleasant surprise. This team will probably go as far as Roy O and Ramirez will take them. Right now, that's not far, but things could change quick.
The Boards have the look of a team that may be cashing in their chips soon. A.J. Burnett is gone for the year, and Randy Johnson won't return for weeks, and by then the Boards may be so far down in ERA/WHIP, that even the Big Unit may not be able to get them out of last place. The Boards strategy of middle relief and Brian Lawrence is not even working as Lawrence has been struggling a bit, and the Boards seem to start a pitcher just in time for a meltdown (see this week's entry Mike Bynum). The offense should pick things up as Larry Walker and Bobby Abreu get untracked, but I'm guessing that the contenders will be sending the trade offers soon.
The Keteers actively pulled on their horse in the first two weeks, trading everything of value for next year. They will not be a factor in any aspect of this year's race, except possibly in saves where the duo of Williamson and possibly Hoffman, may keep saves points away from contenders, and their WHIP/ERA will score points as Matt Clement, Brad Penny and Jeff D'Amico try to meet the minimum innings requirement while stud relievers like Dotel keep the numbers down.
And pulling up the rear come the Woodies who will not be likely to catch anyone except perhaps the Boards in the race for the Hume Award. Their best players are NCs whose stats don't count.
So it looks like a 9-team race soon as the Boards start to fade back with the Keteers and Woodies and while the Elephants have surged to a small lead, the season is young and anyone could make a move...
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:01 PM
...Does anyone read these
The problem with the BLOG format, is that other than through Craig's BLOG, there is no feedback. Let me know if you read these things...
posted by Mariner Optimist 12:05 PM
...Payolahs deal Mesa to Heads for EY
Within a couple of hours of the Elephants pulling out of negotiations for Phillies "closer" Jose Mesa, the Payolahs dealt the soon-to-be-former closer to the Heads in exchange for much-needed stolen bases in the form of Eric Young. The deal is a good one for the Payolahs, who have an excess of saves already and need SBs. The deal looks even better when you look at Mesa's 6+ ERA and ignore his 11 saves. In his last outing, Mesa gave up 5 ERs in a tie game. Meanwhile, the Payolahs quietly picked up Turk Wendell, whose 13+ inning scoreless streak plants him firmly in line for saves if Mesa continues to blow up.
The Heads need the saves and have some SBs to spare with a 10-SB gap before they lose a point. For them, the key will be Mesa keeping a hold on his job. If so, then this is a good deal for the Heads as well.
The Elephants heard rumors of this offer, and a similar of Alex Sanchez for Mesa. The Elephants entered the fray, offering up either Roberto Alomar or Kenny Lofton for Mesa, but after witnessing Mesa's complete lack of stuff or command on Tuesday night, withdrew their offer Wednesday. Speaking of Alex Sanchez, it looks like his stock is dropping along with his OBP and Scott Podsednik is getting some starts in his place. And this leads to an increase in value of Eric Young, as he will move to the top of the order, and steal even more bases...
posted by Mariner Optimist 11:50 AM
Friday, May 09, 2003
...Evaluating the preseason tradesWell, with a quarter of the season behind us, lets take a look at each trade made during the offseason, and see who the winners & losers appear to be. We'll take the sum of the deals for each team instead of evaluating individual deals.
Elephants:
Traded: Randy Johnson (34C), Brian Lawrence(10C), Juan Pierre(19C), Hideo Nomo(8B), Shawn Green(32C), Brett Myers(NC), Mark Bellhorn(10B), Billy Wagner (35B), David Bell (13B), Brad Ausmus (6B), Gabe Kapler (11C), Paul Loduca (8C), Ty Wigginton (5C). Some decent keepers were dealt here including Pierre, Myers, Loduca, and Wigginton. Some players at value include Lawrence, Nomo, Green, and Wagner. Busts include the Big Unit, Bellhorn, Bell, Ausmus, and Kapler.
Traded (not kept) John Patterson(7C), Craig Wilson (10B)
Acquired:Kevin Millwood (15B), Scott Stewart (2B), Orlando Cabrera (8C), Austin Kearns (NC), Hee Seop Choi (NC), Brian Schneider (1B), Brent Butler (1B), Jose Reyes (NC), Jake Peavy (NC), Preston Wilson(15D03), Mike Dejean(10B), Matt Williams(2B). Choi/Schneider/Reyes were later traded for Renteria/Vazquez/Kendall so nice value there. Millwood, Kearns, Cabrera, Wilson & Dejean have carried team. Butler and Williams have been mild disappointments. Stewart remains a wild card, pitching well, but late Spring injury handed closers role to Rocky Biddle who has not relinquished it... yet.
Acquired (not kept): Rod Barajas(NC), Matt Belisle(NC), Edgar Renteria (26B), Javier Vazquez (19C), Jay Witasick (10B). Had to trade for Renteria & Vazquez at slightly higher prices. Barajas would've been kept had the Elephants had another slot.
Summary: Elephants get an A. The Elephants turned 12 players at $191 and 1 NC into 8 players for $54 and 4 NCs. Everyone they acquired can be kept in 2004, except for Cabrera & Wilson. The NC's were the elite of the 2003 class, and have returned either great numbers, or high value in trade. Elephants made mistake keeping Butler over Renteria & Vazquez, which prevent this from being an A+
HoDogs:
Traded: Wiki Gonzales(1C), Willy Mo Pena (NC), Sean Burroughs(NC)
Traded (and not kept):Rod Barajas(NC), Matt Belisle(NC)
Acquired: Hideo Nomo(8B), Shawn Green(32C), Tom Glavine (22B)
Summary: HoDogs get a A-. All three players are key players on the HoDogs team, and no one they gave up has amounted to much. I think they could've gotten Glavine for less, though...
Varks:
Traded: Xavier Nady(NC)
Acquired: Kip Wells (6B)
Summary: B for the Varks who got a good pitcher at a keepable price for their excess of NC players. However, they would've been better served to trade a different NC player since Nady is getting lots of PT. Also failed to make any other deals in the offseason keeps the grade down.
Keteers:
Traded: Jose Mesa(20C), Tom Glavine(22C),
Traded (and not kept):Edgar Renteria(26B), Javier Vazquez(19C)
Acquired: Barry Bonds(41C), David Bell (13B), Brad Ausmus (6B), Wiki Gonzales(1C), Willy Mo Pena (NC)
Acquired (not kept):
Summary: Keteers get a B-. They traded their best keeper in Mesa for Bonds as a trading chip, and combined Bonds and Bell with a $28 Matt Morris to land 2004 keepers Matt Clement (1B), Adam Dunn (10B), Russ Branyan (4A), and Wilson Betemit (NC). However, they should have been consistent in their strategy and kept Renteria & Vazquez as well, since both went for more in the auction, and they could've landed Hee Seop Choi, Jose Reyes, and Brian Schneider as well, setting them up as clear favorites for 2004.
Payolahs:
Traded: Barry Bonds(41C)
Traded (and not kept):Jay Witasick(10B)
Acquired: Jose Mesa(20C), Gabe Kapler(11C)
Acquired (not kept):
Summary: C+ for the Payolahs. Offset the money they saved on Mesa by wasting $11 on Kapler. Grade may improve when Larry Walker finally gets hurt.
Woodies:
Traded: Preston Wilson(15D03), Mike Dejean(10B), Matt Williams(2B)
Acquired: Sean Burroughs(NC), Brett Myers(NC), Mark Bellhorn(10B)
Summary: C for the Woodies. Playing for next year, they got two solid NC keepers, but Bellhorn has flopped, while they may have overpaid in giving up Wilson and Dejean, both of whom have been very good this year.
Boards:
Traded: Vlad Guerrero (25D03), Kip Wells (6B)
Traded (and not kept): Trevor Hoffman (37B)
Acquired: Randy Johnson (34C), Brian Lawrence(10C), Juan Pierre(19C), Wes Helms (3C), Xavier Nady(NC)
Acquired (not kept): Bubba Trammell (6C), Craig Wilson(10B)
Summary: Boards get a C-. Johnson/Lawrence have not provided the value of even Kip Wells, yet. Pierre/Helms/Nady have done as well as Vlad so far, but will swing the other way. Getting even Helms for Hoffman was a very nice deal, but otherwise, they spent an extra $35 that could have been better spent.
Heads:
Traded: Austin Kearns(NC)
Acquired: Paul Loduca(8C), Ty Wigginton(5C)
Summary: The Heads get a D+. Wigginton has done fine at 3B for the Mets, and Loduca has produced for the Dodgers, and was turned into a 10A Kurt Ainsworth. But they could've saved that $19 at the auction and had a 10A Austin Kearns for all of this year. Should've traded Mark DeRosa while they had the chance.
Rynochasers:
Traded: Kevin Millwood (15B), Scott Stewart (2B), Orlando Cabrera (8C), Hee Seop Choi (NC)
Acquired: Vlad Guerrero (25D03)
Summary: D for the Rynochasers. Vlad is a stud, but has been slow out of the gate. Millwood, Cabrera and Choi have been awesome, and Stewart has been great, but just hasn't gotten saves. Add in the Millwood, Stewart & Choi can all be kept next year, and this deal has been a losing one for the Rynos.
Ache Men:
Traded: Wes Helms(3C)
Traded (not kept): Bubba Trammel (6C)
Acquired (not kept): Trevor Hoffman (37B)
Summary: D- for the Ache Men. Even if Hoffman was healthy, this would've been a bad trade for the Ache Men. Bubba Trammel going to the AL essentially salvaged this trade for the Ache Men. Essentially, they gave away Wes Helms. Not worthy of an F, but not good trading from the Ache Men.
Benedicts:
Traded: Brian Schneider (1B), Brent Butler (1B), Jose Reyes (NC), Jake Peavy (NC)
Acquired: Billy Wagner(35B)
Acquired (not kept): John Patterson(7C)
Summary: A big F for the Benedicts. Patterson would have been a risky keeper (see Oliver Perez, for example), but couldn't be kept when he got sent down to AAA. Wagner could have been bought at the auction for the same price or maybe a dollar or two more. For that, they give up two of the top NC guys in Peavy and Reyes, and two cheap keepers in Butler & Schneider. For comparison, Schneider & Reyes became 2/3 of the package that landed the Elephants Renteria, Vazquez and Kendall. And it wasn't like the Benedicts were saving room for better NCs...
posted by Mariner Optimist 10:12 AM
...Its not all the Benedicts JinxWhile I have some sympathy for the Benedicts as the team does seem to have a jinx associated with it, not all of the Benedicts woes can be blamed on said jinx. Specifically, the decision to activate Nelson Cruz based on 11 innings where he only gave up 4 earned runs, is the equivalent of putting a weasel in your underwear because he hadn't bitten you from his cage all week. Sooner or later, that sort of decision is gonna come around and bite you. It comes as no surprise that Nelson has blown up in and out of Coors, giving up 22 ER in 22 innings since being activated by the Benedicts.
The Benedict Blog has referred to the jinx repeatedly this year, but if you examine the team, only Jim Thome's first 80 ABs (.200) and Luis Vizcaino's brutal start show as a surprise. Much more detrimental to this team than any jinx, has been the decision to activate players like Nelson Cruz and Rey Sanchez. The upside potential of these two might be, what, 5 wins and a 4.20 ERA for Cruz and 20 RBIs and .250 from Sanchez. And, of course, these players have only hurt the Benedicts with Sanchez adding 60 ABs of .211 BA while providing 1 RBI. These players are like a $1 catcher who gets too much playing time and gives you 350 ABs of .210 BA while providing 15 RBIs. The Benedicts finally abandoned their $1 catcher strategy this year, but the underlying habits appear to be hard to break.
The Benedicts have a good team. Tim Worrell was one of the best buys of the auction. Andruw Jones is having a monster year, and Helton is still healthy. They made a nice trade to add Kerry Wood and Jim Thome to their lineup. But they won't win as long as they rely on miracle changes in career performance from sub-average players like Sanchez & Cruz. If they dump these players now, look for the Benedicts to rise rapidly in the standings without these Benedict Arnolds sabotaging the team BA, ERA & WHIP.
posted by Mariner Optimist 8:59 AM
Thursday, May 08, 2003
...Elephants back in First Place
The Elephants got off to their usual slow start in 2003, but this time have zoomed to the top of the standings boards before May was even a week old. In the past three championship seasons, the Elephants never sniffed first place until around the All-Star Break. Now, if they can put some distance between themselves and the competition, they may be able to avoid the big dump trades that so decimated them last year. The chief competion includes the surprising Cervezas and the surging Varks, while the Payolahs, HoDogs, AcheMen, Boards, and Benedicts may each be a factor in the title chase.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:32 PM
...Free Agent Season Opens
Cinco de Mayo, is a time for the swilling of good Mexican Beer, and the first time free agents could be acquired. Lets take a look at what each team did...
Teams refusing to improve and not bidding: Rynochasers, Keteers, Ache MenWoodies
Bids: $9 on Jose Guillen, Jae Weong Seo, Matt Herges; $6 on Jung Bong
Won: Jung Bong in a tie with the Elephants
Commentary: Bong looks like he might be the 2003 Atlanta Vulture. The Atlanta Vulture (in 2002, see Chris Hammond) is an excellent one year pitcher, but a questionable long-term keeper, so the Woodies may have just added another trinket to trade. Herges, Seo & Guillen at $9 all look like the Woodies will be shopping to trade the rest of the season.Heads
Bids: $5 on Jose Guillen, Carlos Baerga, Juan Castro, Brandon Webb
Won: Juan Castro
Commentary: Heads have learned value of bidding more than the minimum as Castro is more likely to decimate his batting average while providing little help if any.Boards
Bids: Jose Gullien - 38, Matt Herges - 24, Joe Nathan - 12, Carlos Baerga - 12, Jae Weong Seo - 9, Brandon Webb - 5
Won: Guillen, Herges, Nathan, Baerga
Commentary: WOW! Talk about shooting your wad early! The Boards decided that the chance of later free agents helping more than the first batch was slim, and bid their entire stash of $100, easily winning players that may help salvage the Boards season. Jose Guillen looks like a big-time contributor, but only until Griffey returns, so he does come with some risk, and he could have been had for $14. Herges could get some saves for the Padres in their massive committee, at least until Trevor returns. He could have been had for $10. Carlos Baerga got off to a hot start and may see plenty of playing time. He could've been had for $5. Finally, Joe Nathan, two years removed from surgery, has his velocity on the rise and his ERA/WHIP falling fast. Looks like he may be a great vulture, and if Worrell falters, may find himself in the closer mix.Benedicts
Bids: $11 Joe Nathan, $10 Jae Weong Seo, $5 Jung Bong
Won: Jae Weong Seo
Commentary: A late bump from $7 to $10 makes Seo a Benedict, effectively guaranting that Seo arrives in Norfolk by July.HoDogs
Bids: $8 Jose Guillen, $7 Joe Nathan
Won: Nobody
Commentary: Dogs need to dig deeper.Payolahs
Bids: Guillen $12, Seo $7, Bong $6, Armando Alamanza $6, Shane Reynolds $6
Won: Alamanza & Reynolds
Commentary: Payolahs were surprisingly one of only two teams to take a flyer on Reynolds. Could pay off big if Shane pitches like he did in his first two outings before getting shelled by the Brewers.Varks
Bids: Jose Guillen: 6 Jung Bong: 5 Brandon Webb: 7 Andrew Good: 5
Won: Arizona starters Webb & Good
Commentary: Varks get his hometown boys, but won't be activating either of them anytime soon. Probably a waste of $12, but, what the heck, they are starters.Elephants
Bids: Jose Guillen $13, Jaret Wright $7, Jung Bong $6, Kiko Calero $6, Jae Weong Seo $5, Shane Reynolds $5, Joe Nathan $5, Matt Herges $5
Won: Wright & Calero
Commentary: Elephants pick up a couple of closer committee members, and get to hope that one of these two can supplement Mike Dejean's saves in the absence of Robb Nen. Would've won Guillen had the Boards not gone crazy with their wallet.Cervezas
Bids: Jose Guillen $10, Kiko Calero $6
Won: Nobody
Commentary: Is Kiko Hispanic? Two reasonable bids, just not enough.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:26 PM
...Brian Giles Returns
Just in time to boost Elephant morale, Brian Giles returned from the DL yesterday, and today has already contributed 2 RBI, bringing his season total to 6. With Vaughn gimpy, the Elephants will be relying heavily on Giles to provide a power surge.
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:59 PM
...Mo Vaughn Gimps his way to DL
The struggling and fat Mr. Vaughn has an inflamed left knee that cannot be fixed by surgery. He'll have to take painkillers to get back on the field. ''I've got about 10 or 12 bone spurs,'' Vaughn said. ''It's definitely more extensive than what I thought. ... I have a congenital knee. That means it's going to make it tough.'' Vaughn will probably receive cortisone injections and come off the disabled list later this month.
Combine Vaughn, Nen & Alomar, and the Elephants seem to have completely WASTED $74 at the auction.
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:57 PM
...Robb Nen out for the Season
The worst acquisition of the auction officially belongs to the Elephants, as they spend $29 on a player that will not pitch an inning in 2003. The Elephants are looking to acquire a second closer by trade, and are also trying out options available on the Free Agent Market, acquiring Jaret Wright of the Padres and Kiko Calero of the Cardinals, both of whom have subsequently sucked.
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:49 PM
